AFRICA -
STAYING ON THE RADAR SCREEN
By Brian Paxton, Mbendi Newsletter 4/23/2004
It looks like 2004 could be another year when Africa disappears from world view.
On the political front, events in the Middle East have pushed news from Africa out of the
minuscule slot it occupied in the international press, while on the economic front it's China that
continues to dominate with ongoing speculation about whether its growth can be sustained.
Fortunately for Africa, China's insatiable demand for raw materials has sent the price of crude oil,
platinum, iron ore and other African minerals soaring, not that the revenues always accrue to the
benefit of the people in the exporting countries.
It's also election year in the USA and Europe, a time when politicians tend to focus on filling the
local pork barrel rather than displaying global statesmanship. And, with the implications of budget
deficits starting to be more clearly understood by the man and woman in the street, African
countries can expect to see aid budgets cut all round as the bureaucrats strive to keep spending in
check. Election time is often also an occasion for more frenzied xenophobia than usual as
politicians compete to find ways to make life difficult for foreigners and to divert attention from
unemployment numbers, while at the same time keeping an eye open for any last-minute trade
deals that would please a portion of the local electorate.
It's hard to see how Africa can get back on the radar screen. A solution to the Zimbabwe crisis
would certainly make people sit up, but the probability of a miracle there remains very low.
Middle East oil sanctions against the USA for its stance on Israel could give African oil exporters
a day of glory as they stepped into the breach, but that looks unlikely right now. Maybe now's the
time for African governments and business to keep their heads down and concentrate on getting
Africa growing so we can take the world by surprise next year with some spectacular economic
indicators?
Brian Paxton
MBendi Information Services (Pty) Ltd
Cape Town, South Africa
Tel: +27 (0)21 671-9898 / 671-9889
Fax +27 (0)21 671-6316
PO Box 23498, Claremont, 7735, South Africa E-mail: brian@mbendi.com
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