Mbeki's Zimbabwe concerns
Daily News, Kwazulu Natal, S.A., June 10, 2004
President Thabo Mbeki has called for greater urgency in resolving the Zimbabwe crisis.
Speaking ahead of talks with G8 leaders, he lamented that formal talks between Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe and opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai had not started, despite prolonged informal negotiations to resolve the nation's political and economic crisis.
Asked at a political forum in Washington to comment on the crisis, Mbeki said he felt that Mugabe and Tsvangirai had not been moving quickly enough to set aside their differences and tackle the massive crisis gripping their country.
"In my view, they are moving too slowly. That's my view."
Amid the prolonged political crisis, Zimbabweans, 70% of whom are said to live in poverty, are reeling under severe hardships with runaway inflation, high unemployment and critical shortages of food, medicine and fuel.
Mugabe has come under increased isolation including sanctions from the US, Britain and the EU for human rights abuses and undemocratic practices.
His government unveiled plans this week to cancel titles to all productive land and replace them with 99-year leases under a massive nationalisation scheme - an extension of his highly controversial land reform programme that has seen the seizure of white-owned farms.
Mbeki also said that time was running out in Sudan's crisis-stricken western Darfur region, where there was an urgent need to rush in humanitarian aid to about a million displaced people before the rainy season sets in.
Mbeki said the deteriorating situation in Sudan needed the urgent attention of G8 leaders.
Mbeki said South Africa had sent military observers to help in resolving the conflict there so that the displaced could receive food supplies
Hampered
"It is important to respond very quickly. Once rain comes in the underdeveloped area, the people will become inaccessible," he warned.
Aid workers charge that Khartoum has hampered access to displaced people in Darfur, slowed the delivery of relief supplies and militarily backed Janjawid Arab militiamen who have staged murderous raids on villagers and are widely accused of atrocities.
At least 10 000 people have died and 130 000 others fled across the border into Chad since rebels launched an uprising in Darfur in February 2003 and were met with fierce retaliation by government and Janjawid forces.
The two issues were expected to be among a host of subjects to be discussed by leaders of the the Group of Eight industrialised nations of Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia and the United States and six African leaders today.
The meeting with the leaders of Algeria, Ghana, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa and Uganda will be at the Sea Island resort off Georgia.
This is the third time the G8 leaders are meeting their African counterparts to help them overcome their multitude of problems.
Turning to aid for Africa, Mbeki said American assistance to the continent was too focused on individual countries and should be directed in large measure toward the continent as a whole.
He cited US funding to combat HIV/Aids in Africa and a new foreign aid programme aimed at countries deemed to have effective governments.
"We want to see targeting of the entire continent," Mbeki said.
Debt relief is another issue, he said. "We want to see a commitment to address debt more effectively than has been the case." - Sapa-AP
http://www.dailynews.co.za/index.php?fSectionId=500&fArticleId=2108349
ANC succession debate imminent
Sikhumbuzo Ndiweni
WITH the assurances from President Thabo Mbeki that he will not change the constitution even if the ANC won a two thirds majority and his subsequent sending of congratulatory messages for stepping down to Bakili Muluzi of Malawi, Joachim Chissano of Mozambique and Sam Nujoma of Namibia, it is crystal clear that he is serving his last and final term.
This has obviously caused a lot of jostling and anxiety within the tripartite alliance of the ANC, which consists of the ANC, SACP and COSATU. As a result, cracks are emerging as individuals and factions try to position themselves strategically for the next coming ANC congress in 2007.
The jostling and maneuverings were first brought to light when the late Safety and Security Minister Steve Tshwete (who was seen as a hard-liner and trouble shooter within the ANC and a close ally of President Mbeki) accused the trio of the former ANC secretary general and chief negotiator during the CODESA talks, Cyril Ramaphosa and the former Gauteng Premier and close confidant of the late Chris Thembisile Hani, Tokyo Sexwale and Mathews Phosa, the former premier for Mpumalanga Province, of plotting to assassinate President Thabo Mbeki and of President Mbeki’s shoving of the former ANC women’s league president, Winnie Nomzamo Madikizela Mandela in public at the Orlando Stadium during the June 16 Youth Day celebrations in 2001. It should also be noted that President Mbeki was not tolerant of the dissenting voices within the ANC, and this led to the dropping of both the former ANC Youth League president Peter Mokaba and Madikizela-Mandela. Pallo Jordan was also a casualty as he was dropped from the cabinet even though he has now bounced back.
Secondly, it is widely believed that Tshwete’s actions were driven by the differing of opinions between President Mbeki and these comrades who were seen to be stealing the limelight from him. Therefore, there was need for Mbeki to stamp his authority soon so as not to deal with them when the race for the successor hots up sooner or later.
The million dollar question up to now is what would have happened had Cyril Ramaphosa decided to contest against Thabo Mbeki in the race to succeed the former ANC leader and first president of South Africa, Nelson Mandela? With Mbeki, it should be recalled, he was not democratically elected through the Alliances congress, but was hand-picked and anointed by the former President Nelson Mandela. Logically, it is therefore correct and expected that he wants to do the same with his successor.
The arms deal saga intensified this debate with some critics pointing out that the Hefer Commission was a political charade meant to resolve the internal crisis within the ANC and offer a way of silencing and subsequently removing deputy president, Jacob Zuma from the succession race, with his lieutenants arguing on the merits and the demerits of the establishment of the Hefer Commission. Hence we see the entrance of Bulelani Ngcuka, the head of the Scorpions Investigation Unit and Penuel Maduna, the former minister of Justice and Constitutional Affairs into the picture which will be clarified below.
There has been widespread speculation on the duo deliberately trying to bring Cyril Ramaphosa into the political mainstream through the proposed mediatory mechanism in the arms deal see-saw which, had it been accepted, would have made Ramaphosa a king maker at the expense of Zuma.
Zuma commands insurmountable support within the ANC alliance, therefore he still remains a strong horse in the succession race. Zuma, the former Umkhonto Wesizwe Intelligence chief has the former guerrillas as his first constituency and is banking on the militarists to cover strategic positions in this battle for the top post. Then there is his home base, the powerful Kwazulu-Natal province which recently corrected what would have dented his quest for the presidency by wrestling KZN away from chief Mangosuthu Buthelezi’s IFP.
The other critically important constituencies that are said to be in favour of Zuma are the South African Communist Party and the labour movement COSATU, who are also the two members in the tripartite alliance. It therefore goes without mention that the power and the influence he has, is predominantly within the workers and the peasants who see him as a man championing their cause.
The ANC youth league, which has in the recent past came out in defense of Zuma in the arms deal corruption charges, is seen to be in his camp. The recently held elections provided Zuma with an opportunity to test his support within the ANC after the arms deal saga, and across the nine provinces he passed with distinctions.
His road to power is not solo as he has the following shortcomings, namely, his lack of formal education, the arms deal charges and the Burundi mediatory role - if it succeeds it’s a bonus but if it fails, then it dents his image and undermines his chances. His opponents also doubt his eligibility in handling an economy of South Africa’s magnitude. Another favourite in the race and who seems to be having Mbeki’s support is the former Limpopo province Premier, advocate Ngwako Ramathlodi who, it is said, was together with Mbeki groomed by the late ANC president Oliver Tambo. Ramathlodi’s other strength comes from the fact that he unified Limpopo Province under his leadership as the province was known for rampant factionalism which delayed development. If Mbeki is to anoint a successor, then it is said he will pick him as he has deployed him to the Luthuli House (ANC headquarters) to learn to run the entire organisation at national level. His chances are further improved by the fact that he is a non-Nguni, for it is said that for a change, the ANC wants to break away from the Nguni tradition and the Xhosa nostra syndrome. Other candidates with a real chance are Cyril Ramaphosa and the minister of foreign affairs Makhosazana Dlamini-Zuma, the only female candidate. Her chances are boosted by the stance that Mbeki is taking on the empowerment of women. Therefore, in conclusion, it is crystal clear that when one looks at the recent lashing out and counter accusations between Bulelani Ngcuka and the public protector Lawrence Mushwana, who has just come out with the findings that Ngcuka abused his powers when he was investigating Jacob Zuma, it is obvious that daggers are being drawn and the succession issue is obviously the story behind the story. When all has been said and done one can see that the battle lines are being drawn and soon it will be bloodier than ever. Very soon we might see the political exfoliation of those who are strategically positioning themselves to take over as the ANC national congress nears and the succession race hots up.
The Sunday Mirror, Harare Zimbabwe
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